Understanding Rochester Draft
** A Rochester Draft can be divided into two parts, separated by when the players solidify their colors. In the first part, the draft is more about maneuvering for position than it is about getting cards for the deck itself - within reason. As players become locked in, the focus shifts more and more to drafting your deck. The first part (and how the cards open) is where a Rochester is normally won or lost. Your goal is to get into a good position and do it as quickly as possible and to stay on good terms with your half of the table. If you can get a lot of good cards early on, that's gravy. I think Seth's article [The Rochester Draft [Crash Course](http://magic.mindripper.com/Index.cfm?ArticleID=805&SectionID=1&Show=All)] puts too much emphasis on some aspects of the draft and ignores other more important ones, but it's a great introduction to the complexity of the format. If you haven't read it, I advise you to do so now; I'm not going to re-cover the same material.
The first thing to realize is that your goal is not to draft a deck to beat your first round opponent. You goal is to draft a deck that will win the table. At a Pro Tour, your money shoots up if you lose in the second round instead of the first. At a Qualifier it's all or nothing, and beating your first round opponent with a deck that's not good enough to win will get you nowhere. Then again, you don't get to play the second round if you let your first opponent maneuver into an amazing matchup. So I would reverse the priorities. You want to draft a deck that will win the table without losing your first round match. Keep an eye on your opponent, but mainly so you can play around his cards. I would consider the player two seats to your right more important than he is. But don't pay significant attention to the matchup(s) until the second phase of the draft. That allows you to pay attention to what's important, which is setting up your relationship with the players next to you.
Second, the power structure isn't anywhere near as rigid as Seth put it. The person on your right may be your Daddy, and you should respect your elders, but a kid that insists often gets his way. The person on your left may be your Bitch, but the Bitch can set you up. Watch out. Most importantly, don't decide you'd rather be right than qualified. If your neighbors are clueless, you have to let them have their way to get along. That doesn't mean there's no room for poetic justice, but don't push it. A lot of this depends on the exact colors in question, and you have to understand how each color flows in each pack before moving on.
Blue and Green are strong in Prophecy and solid in MM but terrible in Nemesis. That means that what's going on to your right is all that matters with these two. It's great to have more shots at Blastoderm, but not important enough to worry too much about. Discipline can become key, especially when you're drafting both colors: Even if you're short on cards, don't panic. Your time will come, and even more so than in Booster because you know for sure that it will. Your left still matters because the pack reverses order and both colors are deep enough that you have a good shot at getting good cards on the way back, especially in Prophecy but also in Nemesis. But if someone on your left fights you, it's their funeral. The color is open if neither of the two players on your right are drafting it, but any time it's not on your direct right you can consider it.
Black is the opposite situation. In Prophecy Black dies, and it dies hard. Really hard. Nemesis is where it shines. That means that Black matters mostly on your left. If you can keep Black away from the two players to your left, you're in position to draft it. Your Daddy may be pissed, but you're a professional now. Ignore his looks. That doesn't mean you should wait for Nemesis to shift into Black if you have a choice; it's better to declare your allegiance as soon as you know what it is. Give everyone warning so they can shift out, and take the cards to stay in the color away from them. Also note that if you set Black up too well then sometimes the player on your left will realize how this works and set you up, switching in after you do all the work. Of course, you'd do the same thing.
Red is strongest in Prophecy. In MM it has a bunch of solid cards but nothing spectacular except uncommons and rares. In Nemesis it's similarly decent but not that great. Red decks will often look bad early on, so remember you're setting up for Prophecy. Red is the color easiest to signal, because you will normally be sacrificing card quality to draft it early on and there aren't commons of questionable value; either there's a solid red card or there isn't. The ones that aren't will serve you on the way back. Prepare for a sea of three and four cost monsters, but don't pass red cards that will drive people into red in order to smooth out your curve during phase one. Don't forget, setting up is more important.
White is a strange situation. A lot depends on whether you're going for the engine or not. Because of how the Nemesis print runs work, a player drafting white on your left is actually not a problem if one of you is going for a heavy rebel chain and the other isn't. That's not true of one on your right because of the other sets. You can divide up the Lieutenants just fine, but everyone wants those Gliders even if they're not what they once were. Even more than that, everyone wants Troubled Healer. Even a lot of non-white players. So overall, don't worry about white on your left if it's different white, but white on your right is a problem. Still, as long as your second color isn't Black and is open on your right you should be all right.
The overall picture is that you must make sure you have something open on both sides, with the exception of a Blue/Green mage. That one color combination can actually take one for the team, although you don't actually want both blue and green on your direct left and would much prefer a two player opening for one of them. On the right this is vital. One of your colors other than Black must not be drafted by either of the two players on your right if at all possible. The other should have a clearance of one, just your Daddy. Asking for more is getting greedy, and it isn't needed.
The next issue is color combinations. I think the only one that you need to avoid is B/W. The other nine are all fine if you know how to draft them. My favorites are U/R and U/G, with R/G and B/G after that. If you get Black I'd really try to match it up with Green. Then there are the matchups. Again, you're not looking for anything too amazing, but make sure you don't get killed. This comes down to individual cards and situations as much as it does to color combinations. If anyone thinks you can automatically hose a color with another, at best they're pushing the envelope. Again, this is something to worry about in phase two.
So now for the first pack. Don't even think about what will get to your opponent. Even if it were vital, PTQ players will often be too random to predict that well. Only react to your opponent's card at all if it's a broken card like Volcanic Winds or Thrashing Wumpus. Even then, just use this kind of information as a sort of tie breaker if your decision would be close. And it will often be close, because you'll be taking useless cards anyway in the later positions if the pack is weak. Do consider how many playable cards there are of the same color as the one you're drafting and where they may end up, since these will normally draw the people who take them into their colors. You're taking cards to make a statement. Which color you draft and what position you're in to do that are more important than any one card, although it's generally worth taking a Waterfront Bouncer or Two-Headed Dragon level card and trying to hang on for dear life if you get something that good. But don't be afraid to sacrifice a little quality to get the colors you feel good drafting, and don't hesitate to do it to improve position. If you're not going to play a card, it doesn't matter how good the card actually is. This gets even more important now that you have to win the entire table. You can look at Ceremonial Guard and Revered Elder, and you can decide which one you think is better, but if you're playing either of them you're not getting an invitation today. So the question is just: Draft a red card or draft a white card? And that depends entirely on what colors you want to be in, and what colors you want THEM to be in. Don't draft anything that would otherwise push your neighbors toward colors you're going to avoid. In other words, all other things being equal, leave the color you wanted to avoid anyway so that your neighbor will take it instead.
If you know both colors you want already, take a card from the other one on the way back unless it's going to give a card from your original color to the person on your right. If you're not sure, protect your first color and choose your second one later. Flexibility is worth paying for if it's unclear which way you should go, but the moment you do know stop worrying about it - and signal with your useless cards at the ends of packs which way you're leaning. These cards may seem irrelevant. They are not. Drafters build on the smallest of foundations, and often these cards are treated as signs. Encourage this unless the cards didn't come up the way you wanted them. To the extent that you can, make a big deal out of the card you draft. Indicate you're taking it as fast as possible as well. Try to make everyone remember what you took, and keep reminding them what colors you're drafting with every pick. People forget, and those two away from you have more than enough other stuff to worry about without you making their life difficult.
Stick to your colors no matter how crappy the cards are, unless you suspect you might play the card you draft. Take Saprazzan Raider if you have to. When you can't take a card in your colors, take a card that's as totally useless to everyone as you can. So again you take Saprazzan Raider. This rule doesn't change as the draft continues. Your neighbors should know that as long as they leave your cards alone, you'll leave theirs alone. Don't counterdraft, it's worse than useless. It pisses people off and pushes them away from colors you want them in. There are two exceptions: One is the last pack when you can no longer be hurt by retaliation. The other is when a card isn't good overall but is good against you. Artifact removal is the best example of this. If you've drafted Crenellated Wall and Puffer Extract, go ahead and take away a Crash if there's nothing else to do. But if there was a Lightning Hounds in the pack and you clearly cannot go red, pass it even if you have to take a card you cannot play. If the people around you are following these rules as well, co-operate with them up until the end. Unless the card is important, don't forget that unless one of you wins you'll probably see him again next week.
The second level is tricks to get the cards you want. This requires you to study the other players. Which ones are being nice and which are counterdrafting when they get the chance? And of course try to know the colors of whoever you can. Use this to predict how packs go, especially when the wheel is close to you. If you get picks 7 and 10 out of a pack, consider what picks 8 and 9 will be depending on what you pick 7th. If you clash on one color, take the card you wouldn't get back now and pick up the other card later, even if it's better. When you get picks 6 and 11, you need to look farther ahead and it's often hard to see. But other times you can pick your card to get another playable card back if you're careful. This gets even more important if someone next to you is still on the fence on one of your colors. Don't give him a way in if you can help it, even if it means taking a small hit to your deck. You'd be surprised how often these little things determine people's colors.
The final thing I'll do in this first article is discuss positions to draft from. Position 1 is universally seen as the worst, and I would agree. But position alone is far from fatal and I think it matters much less than people think. All the middle positions are fine. Being 8th is generally considered awful, but there's a definite bright side to it. You pick twice the first time you get a pick ("the wheel"), so you can prevent anyone from taking a card of that color coming back while you already know an early pick of everyone on your left. You have the advantage of information to set up your position. The problem is that you'll have to pass bombs if they're in the wrong color if you started in late position.
So more to the point: If you get to place the Marker and decide who will begin the draft, put your opponent in Seat One and yourself in Seat Five. Five isn't any better than others near it (it's probably slightly worse) but this lets you play against Seat One first. By making him commit quickly with a first pick and then a wheel, you're giving him less room to try and get a good matchup if he cares about that in addition to just being in a worse position to get a good deck.
Next time I'll try and do an analysis of an actual PTQ Top 8 Rochester, probably the one from Week 1 at Neutral Ground: New York.
Until then,
- Zvi Mowshowitz
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