Rising Waters II: Sideboarding
**[note that part 1 of this series can be found [here](http://magic.mindripper.com/Index.cfm?ArticleID=393&SectionID=4&Show=All).]
The key to solving the sideboarding problem was understanding how the rebels would attack the Rising Waters deck. Clearly, the key card from them to attack is Rising Waters, and they would probably hit it with seven or eight of Disenchant and Seal of Cleansing, and possibly even Devout Witness. That leaves the deck two choices. You can fight this avalanche of enchantment removal, or as Scott Johns suggested, you can get out of the way.
Getting out of the way meant pulling all our targets for Disenchant and Seal of Cleansing. You would have to take out four Rising Waters and four Eye of Ramos. Seal of Removal was different, because it can be held and then used as a spell, and early on no one was going to use up removal on a Seal. Without Rising Waters, most of the time the rebel engine is going to beat you eventually. Your job is to kill them before that happens. The strongest creature to do that with is Stronghold Zeppelin, which is also an excellent overall creature. You end up bringing it in for one of your creatures against a number of odd decks, when you don't need the advantages of one of the starting ones. The next problem is that you've taken out Eye of Ramos, which means you no longer have quite enough mana in the deck. The solution to that is to sideboard in three lands.
At first they were Islands, and then we looked at what else they could be. Rath's Edge can be annoying to this deck because it kills Waterfront Bouncer, and can be quite useful for the deck if it no longer uses Rising Waters, acting as an extra Stinging Barrier when you need to get the critical amount of direct damage to start mowing down the board. The downside to Rath's Edge is you can't use it for Gush or Thwart, but with the number of Islands in the deck actually going up instead of down that isn't that much of a problem. A second Rath's Edge would have run into the problem of it being a Legendary Land, so we decided on just one. The other two lands remained Islands, although one of them probably should have been a Dust Bowl.
That lets you bring in seven cards. Card number eight is going to be Counterspell. After sideboarding, there are more threats you simply have to stop, and your opponent is more likely to play around Daze, which you often want to take out anyway. In addition, there are decks where you have a very good chance to counter all their threats, in which case a Counterspell is golden. The matchup where Counterspell is at its worst is the rebels, since they often don't need to cast spells, but after boarding you need it there as well.
Cards nine through eleven are Misdirections. Misdirection will randomly wreck some decks, and many rebel decks count. They play targeted removal, and when you use Misdirection on an early removal spell it will set them back at least two turns, one to cast the removal spell and one to recast their searcher, and it can even let you shut down their engine completely. These get even more important if you decide not to transform and they have Disenchant targets as well. If there's one problem with the card, it's that I was afraid it would get boarded in when it didn't belong.
The last part of the transformation was Bribery. Story Circle is a nightmare after the transformation. With Lin Sivvi to keep from being decked and a lot of Plains, the Circle is virtually game. The one Hoodwink helps to some extent, but you'd rather not put that in (it's for other random stuff more than this) and it won't show up in time all that often. The strategy for this nightmare case was to use Bribery to get a Ramosian Sky Marshall or Jhovall Queen to kill them with, as well as the normal Lin Sivvi option. The normal target was Sky Marshall, taking the main flying defense out of their engine and making it almost impossible for them to stop the flying assault. What sold us on the Briberies was that blue simply doesn't have any good expensive creatures. Once you use Zeppelins, you're basically out of good options. Artifact creatures are out of the question because of the transformation. The problem with Bribery is Parallax Wave, which wrecks it.
The last two cards were the Hoodwink and the fourth Seal of Removal. Now, a look at how the board works in individual matchups.
Aggressive Rebels: This is the big test. Both transforming and not transforming make for a hard game. If you know they're going to put in all the removal you can go aggressive, but even then it's not ideal. You have an edge but not a huge one. The best case scenario is if they know about the sideboard and take all the removal out while you keep Waters in. All things being equal, I wouldn't pull the transformation against the very aggressive versions that often unless they no longer worry about it. It's vital in all white matchups to shuffle in all fifteen sideboard cards and then take fifteen out before game two and before game three. If you don't go aggressive, you take out Daze and Seal of Removal for Counterspell and Misdirection, but otherwise stay the same. The exact numbers you take out depend on who goes first and what you expect. Daze is clearly much worse when you go second than when you go first. If you pull the transformation, you add thirteen cards for four Waters, four Eyes, three Seals and two Daze or similar. You can't quite fit everything you want. If you don't think they can move up the chain of command to Sky Marshall and Jhovall Queen, don't add Bribery, which gets you two Daze or Seal back.
Non-Aggressive Rebels: Things get a lot easier now, and suddenly both options look better. The cards you board are basically the same, although Bribery is a better bet in the transformation than it is against the aggressive versions. Here, you should probably again defend Rising Waters if you think they will hedge their bets or gamble on the transformation, and only transform if you think they'll really go after Waters. Waters is harder to protect going second than going first, so go aggressive more often when you're going second.
X-Files Rebels (W/G; The Truth is out there): They have only a very minor rebel engine, with the problem being that Saproling Burst and Blastoderm are pretty much must counter spells a lot of the time if you're under pressure. If the first one wasn't, the second one will be. With such expensive threats the transformation probably isn't worth doing if they hedge their bets, although again if they gamble on there being no transform it's worth doing. Bribery is excellent against this deck, quite possibly worth bringing in even if you stick to the Waters plan, since they don't have much to Misdirect.
G/B Death Pit Offering: The game will revolve around Rising Waters. If you get it, their job is almost impossible. If you don't, you may need a heavy counter draw to pull off the game. Versions of this deck differ, so sideboard for what their threat mix is. If they use Hunted Wumpus, for example, you don't take out Waterfront Bouncer, but if they don't you probably do. Seal of Removal stays in to deal with Thrashing Wumpus and creatures you didn't think of. All the counters come in, with Misdirection for Extortion. Choosing the best creatures can be tricky, with the key question being Spontaneous Generation. If they run it your normal creatures are great, otherwise Zeppelins start looking better.
Black Control: This is probably your easiest real matchup. You put in Bribery and the fourth Seal and third Counterspell, taking out Waterfront Bouncers, and then switch the Barriers over to Zeppelins since there's nothing to kill, then go a little light on creatures to get Misdirection, again for Extortion and here also Unmask. The bouncers leave since their creatures should be able to kill them, either Thrashing Wumpus or Ascendant Evincar. Seal of Removal becomes more important, but the game should take long enough to find them. If they run Skull of Ramos try and stop it, but it's not a disaster.
Cowardice: Versions of this deck differ somewhat. If they're not using Eye of Ramos, then Cowardice often isn't going to be fatal even game one unless they get something like Belbe's Armor as well. You lock down their land with Ports and start recasting Waterfront Bouncer with two other Eyes under Rising Waters. Regardless, go after Cowardice with a vengeance. If you stop it their deck should collapse. If they do get it, watch for the Tower of the Magistrate. If they have it look for Waters and settle into a long game. If they don't have it try to stop their way to bounce your creatures and beat them before they get a Tower. Dust Bowl would help out of the sideboard in this matchup a lot. You put in Misdirection since the whole game will often come down to a counter war over Waters or Cowardice, the third Counterspell, the Hoodwink for Cowardice, and then cut the Barriers for the more efficient Zeppelins. Seal of Removal can go as well. Daze stays, since they can't afford to play around it.
Waters. Ah, the mirror matchup. Like the rebel matchup this is a mind game, since Waters might leave the deck and normally does. Regardless of everything else, you take out an Island for Rath's Edge. The safe overall move is to take out Rising Waters and leave in Eye of Ramos, bringing in the Zeppelins and tuning the deck from there. Misdirection is poor, Seal and Daze are good but not great. The big gamble is to take out Eye of Ramos and put in all the lands. This gives you a slight edge on someone with Eyes and not Waters, although not a huge one. If they left Waters in, you're in real trouble. That's the third option, to leave Waters in. The main reasons for this are that you think you can outplay your opponent under Rising Waters better than you can without it, or because your opponent's version isn't as good under Rising Waters as yours, plus they will probably sideboard to something slightly less than perfect under it. It's an interesting question; during the ProTour, I decided to leave in Waters only against Accumulated Knowledge versions of the deck, and to never take out Eye of Ramos.
Blue Beatdown. This deck existed, although it didn't show up in numbers and was gone by second day. Again you have a tough decision on Rising Waters. Without it your deck has a slight edge because of Stinging Barrier, but no more. With it is a more open question. My instinct was I might split the difference, since drawing multiples is terrible, adjusting the plan depending on how good their deck is under Waters. Different versions run different numbers of Thwart, Daze and Waterfront Bouncer, and some even use some Gushes.
Ponza. Their goal is land destruction, but their plan doesn't work under Rising Waters at all. Put in three extra lands and a Counterspell, cut whatever doesn't seem needed against their version, probably including Waterfront Bouncers since they'll just die, and win off the Waters. You can also win off your creatures having high toughness and using Seals to force them to rekill them, if you have to.
This is getting silly now, since the decks I would consider didn't really see much play or do well, and these matchups should serve as a good base. The two types of matchups are those where Waters is the star, in which case you take out whatever's bad against their deck and concentrate on Waters, and decks which make Waters questionable, which either mimic your deck a lot or run the cheap rebels, in which case you sometimes become a blue beatdown deck.
That completes the overview of our finished version of the Rising Waters deck. Next, it's time to get into the deck design and testing process.
- Zvi Mowshowitz**
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